Trade instead of oil: How CEPA agreements are shaping the future of the UAE
The UAE’s economic growth is no longer driven by oil. The country is building its trade relations with great skill and strategy: oil has now been replaced by international shipping and trade. The favorable tax environment and free trade zones, which allow businesses to be established quickly and easily, provide an ideal breeding ground for investors.
Trade instead of oil: How CEPA agreements are shaping the future of the UAE
The Economics of Geography

Trade instead of oil: How CEPA agreements are shaping the future of the UAE

Photo: AFP/STR
Otília Sári 22/04/2025 10:27

The UAE’s economic growth is no longer driven by oil. The country is building its trade relations with great skill and strategy: oil has now been replaced by international shipping and trade. The favorable tax environment and free trade zones, which allow businesses to be established quickly and easily, provide an ideal breeding ground for investors.

This strategy was elevated to a new level with CEPA, the system of Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements. The first such agreement was signed with India in February 2022.

India is the UAE’s third largest trading partner after the United States and China. The country mainly imports petrochemicals, textiles, pharmaceuticals and jewellery. The UAE also has the largest ethnic community – the Indian-origin population makes up around 30% of the total population, with nearly 3.5 million people. India’s economy is growing at an impressive pace and is adapting quickly to global economic challenges. CEPA aims to increase annual trade between the two countries from $60 billion to $100 billion within five years, and to eliminate tariffs on 90% of Indian exports to the UAE and 65% of exports from the UAE to India.

While a few years ago, citizens of Israel and the UAE were not allowed to travel to each other’s countries, today this has not only changed, but CEPA, through the Abraham Accords, is further strengthening economic cooperation. Trade has thus become a means of investment, innovation, stability, and peace. Israel’s world-class innovation ecosystem – particularly in the areas of cybersecurity, agritech, medical technology, and water management – ​​perfectly complements the UAE’s economic diversification efforts and the building of a knowledge-based economy.

Indonesia, the largest economy in Southeast Asia, has key industries such as food processing and textile manufacturing. Through CEPA, the UAE gains access to a massive consumer market and opportunities to expand investments in the region.

Turkey, just like the UAE, serves as an important logistics hub, connecting the West to the East. CEPA aims to strengthen both countries' roles as trade partners in international goods traffic, improving the speed and flexibility of shipping.

The agreement with Cambodia facilitates regional integration within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), while providing the UAE with strategic access to emerging Southeast Asian markets and resources.

Georgia serves as a gateway between Europe, the Black Sea region, and Central Asia, playing a geostrategic role in expanding the UAE’s global trade routes.

The CEPA signed with Costa Rica in 2024 offers the UAE a strategic entry point into Latin American markets while improving the efficiency and sustainability of global supply chains.

Although at first glance Mauritania may seem geographically and economically less significant, the reality is that CEPA opens the door for the UAE to sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, and mineral resource trade – key industries in Mauritania’s economy. The agreement supports the UAE’s goal of expanding its influence in West Africa and gaining access to critical natural resources.

The UAE’s CEPA agreements represent a significant turning point in the region’s economic structure: the oil-based model is being replaced by a modern economic paradigm based on trade and investments. This has also encouraged other Gulf countries, like Saudi Arabia, to diversify their economies – for example, through its Vision 2030 program, which outlines its economic reforms. As more CEPA agreements come into force, the region’s economic future will increasingly be defined by international cooperation, trade, and investment – not by oil reserves – and the UAE’s influence in the Gulf and beyond will continue to grow, setting a new benchmark for economic leadership.

The author is the deputy head of the commercial department at a Dubai-based conglomerate

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