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Logan C. West
30/08/2024 06:00
Hungary’s history is full of brutal invasions, occupations, and a plethora of accompanying tragedies dealt at the hands of foreign powers. The Habsburg, Ottoman, Nazi, and Soviet empires all left scars in the Carpathian Basin which are felt to this day. Some are immortalized through institutes such as the House of Terror and the Holocaust Museum. Budapest is determined that this brutal past will not be repeated.
The Hungarian foreign policy strategy, dubbed by its architects as “connectivity,” aims to maintain active relations with both eastern and western powers. In order to stabilize the historically restive region of Central and Eastern Europe, mutually beneficial arrangements are pursued to promote peace that is in everyone’s interests. Infrastructural investments such as Russian nuclear reactors and Chinese telecommunications and manufacturing, in addition to diplomatic efforts such as maintaining membership with the Istanbul-based Organization of Turkic States, link Hungary with Russia, China, and Turkey in the east. Meanwhile, its membership and leadership efforts in NATO as well as the European Union, of which Hungary will assume the presidency this summer, ensure its relations with the United States and the European Union in the west.
This would sound like basic foreign policy logic to most. However, the ongoing Russo-Ukraine conflict, along with tensions between China and the U.S. and European Union over security concerns, have turned foreign policymaking into a balancing act between the east and the west. Hungary increasingly acts as the fulcrum point for Central and Eastern Europe. Budapest’s efforts have solicited suspicions from Washington and Brussels due to increasing instances of exposed Chinese espionage efforts. Budapest’s reluctance to join Europe in cutting itself from Russian energy sources and its slow approval of Sweden’s NATO accession compound these concerns. Chinese-built telecommunications infrastructure and artificial intelligence ventures have been thought of as potential security vulnerabilities. The recent signing of a joint-policing agreement between Budapest and Beijing has heightened these fears.
From Budapest’s viewpoint however, the strategy has been working. As the last European nation maintaining cordial relations with China, Hungary has become its economic gateway into the region. This has resulted in manufacturing, logistics, and telecommunications infrastructure being built to facilitate China’s business ambitions in Europe. The most notable results include an increase in skills-based employment for its populace as well as a rise in the nation’s profile for technological research and development. The most notable sectors are artificial intelligence and electric vehicle development through partnerships with Chinese companies like Huawei, CATL, and BYD. Budapest’s continued energy relations with Russia have provided a measure of stability in its energy affairs. Diplomatically, the “connectivity” strategy earned Hungary’s political leadership red carpet treatment. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in extraordinary face-to-face meetings in Moscow and Beijing, demonstrating the close relations cultivated.
The key to Budapest’s success is ensuring that its eastern economic ties are not seen as a compromise to its western security relations. American and European officials acknowledge that, like Hungary, the rest of the west has also maintained economic connections to China. The difference is that the U.S. and the European Union have pursued security assurances in critical infrastructure while Hungary has prioritized economic development. Maintaining this path would likely assure the nation continues to develop, but potentially at the cost of its western security alliances. If Budapest can reconcile the concerns of Washington and Brussels, its “connectivity” strategy will ensure prosperity. If it fails to do so, Hungary will be risking its defense allies which serve as its primary protection against the tragedies of the past, potentially leaving itself vulnerable for new perils in the future.
The author is an American visiting Research Fellow at the Danube Institute in Budapest, Hungary where he researches cyber and geopolitical affairs in Central and Eastern Europe. He is a graduate of the Institute of World Politics in Washington D.C. in Statecraft and Strategy and has published articles on geopolitical affairs in both American and European platforms such as the National Interest, the European Conservative, Magyar Nemzet, and the Hungarian Conservative.