Photo: AFP/Nicolas Asfouri
Máté Gergely Balogh
28/02/2025 06:00
His first presidential term marked a downturn in relations between the two nations, characterised by economic, technological, national security, and strategic confrontation, as well as the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic.
Since the détente of the 1970s, the volume of Sino-American trade has grown exponentially, and today, the two countries are each other’s largest trading partners. From an American perspective, the trade deficit with China is concerning, prompting Donald Trump to impose protective tariffs in 2018, for example, on Chinese steel and aluminium. The American president sees China as growing at the expense of the United States. Since the 1980s, he has believed that tariffs are the solution to the trade deficit problem. During his campaign, he repeatedly voiced his plans on this matter, even suggesting tariffs as high as 60 per cent.
From an American perspective, confrontation with China often takes on a national security aspect. An example of this is the case of Huawei, which was accused of violating intellectual property rights and of cooperating with the Chinese military and state security. On these grounds, sanctions were imposed on the technology company. More broadly, the United States has been striving to reduce its dependence on Chinese technology.
From a strategic standpoint, Taiwan is the most crucial issue. The island produces 65 per cent of the world’s semiconductors, and Trump has claimed that Taiwan is “taking away” business from American chip manufacturers. He also stated that Taiwan should contribute more to its own defence. Previous U.S. President Joe Biden had declared that he would be willing to defend the island militarily, but Trump has not made such a commitment. The re-elected president has repeatedly suggested that military conflict will not occur, as he has a good relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and in such an event, the United States would impose severe punitive tariffs on China.
During the final year of Trump’s first presidency, the Covid-19 pandemic broke out, for which he blamed China. As early as 2020, he claimed that the virus had escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where research funded by the U.S. government had also been conducted. In a press conference in December 2024, he called Xi Jinping a “great guy” but added that the pandemic had strained their relationship.
Covid-19 also highlighted the extent to which the United States depends on China, particularly in pharmaceutical production. Following the pandemic, there has been increasing discussion of America’s decoupling from China and risk reduction, primarily in economic and technological areas. These processes will continue during Trump’s second presidency, as he campaigned on a promise to rebuild American manufacturing capacity and encourage U.S. companies to relocate back home – potentially from China.
Donald Trump’s 1987 book is titled The Art of the Deal, and not without reason: he is prone to unusual, unexpected moves and is willing to negotiate and strike deals even over the heads of his own cabinet. It is entirely possible that the threats of high tariffs are already part of the bargaining process.
The author is a historian and Americanist