The Changing World Order – Rivalry in the Middle East
As one of the side effects of the Russo–Ukrainian war, it became visible that several regional powers share an identity of interest when it comes to the change of the unipolar world order, which started a real chain reaction in the field of global geopolitical reorganisation.
The Changing World Order – Rivalry in the Middle East
Geurasia

The Changing World Order – Rivalry in the Middle East

Chinese President Xi Jinping with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Photo: AFP/AA/Volkan Furuncu)
András Biró – András Kosztur 06/04/2023 08:00

As one of the side effects of the Russo–Ukrainian war, it became visible that several regional powers share an identity of interest when it comes to the change of the unipolar world order, which started a real chain reaction in the field of global geopolitical reorganisation. The war has consequences in the Middle East as well, and as a result, all of the leading regional powers – Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Iran – became more active in their foreign affairs. 

Among the Middle Eastern countries, Türkiye enjoys a unique position; as a NATO member, the country is an ally of the United States and a candidate for EU membership. Nonetheless, Ankara has chosen not only a different but also an independent path from the policy of Washington. Instead of joining Western sanctions, the country decided to remain neutral and emerge as a mediator in the Russo–Ukrainian war.

Like Türkiye, Saudi Arabia also positions itself as a mediator between the fighting sides on some issues. In addition, the mutually beneficial oil-for-security covenant, which cemented the Saudi–American partnership for decades, seems to be unravelling, as Riyadh was unwilling to meet Washington’s demands regarding increasing oil production. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Photo: AFP/Wang Zhao)
It also might cause concerns to Washington that Riyadh is establishing closer ties to China and, in certain matters, to Russia. However, the same could be said about Türkiye as well. Saudi Arabia and Türkiye are trying to exploit their benefits regarding the geostrategic location at the crossroads of three continents. Therefore both countries joined the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) while also approaching the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the BRICS group. In the past few years, Ankara and Riyadh have shown a ‘growing interest’ in being full-time members of the BRICS. Additionally, Saudi Arabia became a dialogue partner of SCO in September of 2022, while Türkiye – already a dialogue partner since 2012 – claimed that it would seek full membership.

The third significant power in the struggle for regional hegemony over the Middle East is Iran, which has been forced to cope with international isolation and many sanctions for decades. Despite these hardships, Iran secured a growing influence in territories inhabited by Shiites. The decay of the United States-led unipolar world order could mean an expansion of geopolitical latitude for Tehran, as the regime can be considered a natural ally of China and Russia. Furthermore, sanctions imposed on Russia for its aggression against Ukraine could also offer an opportunity to Iran, for instance, through the expansion of North–South corridor, which seeks to connect Russia with India through Iran’s territory.
Historic deal: Iran’s top security official, Ali Shamkhani, China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, and Saudi National Security Advisor Musaid al Aiban (Photo: AFP/Xinhua/Luo Xiaoguang)
Although Ankara, Riyadh, and Tehran are all included in the grand projects of the Eurasian continent, at the same time, they have sharp conflicts in the Middle East in several questions, for instance, in Syria or Yemen. Presumably, on the one hand, the relationship between the three countries will drift toward competition for regional hegemony. On the other hand, the prospects of Eurasian integration will steer them toward cooperation.

One of the latest examples of that is the reconciliation among the two fierce rivals, Iran and Saudi Arabia, which countries have agreed to re-establish diplomatic relations and reopen their embassies after their meeting in Beijing in March. This agreement also reflects the growing Chinese influence in the Middle East, which should not come as a surprise, as the emerging superpower has its own direct interests in maintaining peace on the Eurasian continent. With the decline of the USA’s influence in the Middle East, China can play a major role in security and stability-related issues even soon.

András Biró – The author is a researcher at the 21st Century Institute
András Kosztur – The author is a senior researcher at the 21st Century Institute

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