Photo: AFP/Anadolu Agency/Utku Ucrak
Szabolcs Veres
20/06/2024 13:08
Several analyzes have recently appeared looking at how Türkiye and Uzbekistan - as the two most populous countries in the Turkic world - have developed ever-closer bilateral relations in recent years, as well as the regional alliance of Tashkent and Ankara within the Organization of Turkish States. how it seeks to combine their common strategic goals to achieve its own economic and security objectives.
In contrast to Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, two other important and resource-rich countries in the Turkish world, both countries have a different economic base and strong military capabilities.
Did Türkiye initiate its own policy of "Opening to the East"?
Türkiye's imperial aspirations and foreign policy visions directed eastwards from the Bosporus are not entirely new. Over the past 30 years, Ankara has continuously expanded its cooperation with Central Asia and proclaimed its own policy of "Opening to the East" as it grew into a regional superpower.
For the Turkish government, however, revitalizing and unifying the self-confidence of the Turkish people is an essential prerequisite for such regional superpower aspirations. However, Ankara's engagement has always been hampered by its geographical distance from Central Asia, inadequate transportation infrastructure to the region, limited Turkish investment and low trade turnover in recent decades.
In recent years, however, cooperation between Turkey and Central Asian countries has developed differently, making Türkiye’s "Opening" to Central Asia easier to interpret. One of them is the tension between Russia and the West, which has triggered a new kind of urgent diplomatic action in Ankara. Although Moscow's military invasion of Ukraine gave Türkiye the opportunity to act as a mediator between Russia and the West and open a new trade route between China and Europe, bypassing Russia via Central Asia and, of course, Türkiye.
Other reasons include the fact that the significant drop in energy exports from Russia to Europe as a result of Western sanctions has simply made Central Asian energy more attractive. As Europe seeks to diversify its suppliers, Brussels has increasingly looked to Central Asia, which, true to a good merchant, Ankara has also noticed, as Kazakh crude oil is already flowing to Europe via Azerbaijan and Türkiye.
Türkiye's current ideas about Central Asia suggest that Ankara wants to become a Eurasian energy hub through which Europe receives gas and other goods from Asia. And the Israel-Hamas conflict has only confirmed this Turkish idea.
For all these reasons, Türkiye has turned its economic attention to the Central Asian countries. Trade turnover between Türkiye and the region has increased in recent years. In 2022, the Kazakh-Turkish trade balance accounted for 4.7% of Kazakhstan's total trade. Also in 2022, Ankara quietly became Uzbekistan's fourth largest trading partner, thanks in part to the framework of the preferential trade agreement between the two countries. In addition, trade turnover between Turkmenistan and Türkiye will exceed two billion dollars in 2023.
Tashkent apothecary scales in the field of diplomacy
Russia, for its part, regards Central Asia, including Uzbekistan, as its own backyard, which is important to it both politically and economically. A good example of this is that after the Russian elections in spring 2024, the third foreign trip of re-elected Russian President Vladimir Putin - after China and Belarus - was to the Uzbek capital in Central Asia.
However, Tashkent is keen to keep Russia at "arm's length" and is working with Kazakhstan to create a Central Asian gas hub, which Russian President Putin himself has championed. Similarly, Mirziyoyev has tried to maintain a certain distance between Uzbekistan and China by asking Beijing for investment and loans only when absolutely necessary. However, this is somewhat at odds with the establishment of the "all-weather" strategic partnership between China and Uzbekistan in early 2024, which is why Tashkent wants to work with major investors from Qatar and Saudi Arabia to develop Uzbekistan's energy sector.
But what was the visit about?
Ankara hopes that the "flourishing relations" between Türkiye and Uzbekistan can revive Turkish cooperation in the region and that globalization will give way to regionalization. In the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was assumed that the world's leading powers - first and foremost the United States - would act decisively and establish a presence in the markets of new countries such as Uzbekistan, but this has not happened. After three decades, a solid Turkish partnership is now beginning to develop in Central Asia, including Uzbekistan. According to Tashkent's assessment, this cooperation will strengthen Uzbekistan's authority as a central power in Central Asia, and Ankara may be able to consolidate Türkiye 's influence in the region. In addition, the rapid rapprochement between Türkiye and Uzbekistan can allow Turkish cooperation to flourish and create a strong foundation for cooperation and regional stability that fits into Türkiye 's future world concept.
The author is a researcher at the Eurasia Center
