Photo: Facebook/Orbán Viktor
Csongor Balázs Veress
28/02/2025 06:00
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government maintained particularly close ties with the first Trump administration, a relationship that shifted with the Biden era’s more critical approach. Now, the question is whether Trump’s return could reinvigorate US-Hungarian relations, especially regarding cooperation with China, the Russia-Ukraine war, and energy policy. These issues significantly impact regional stability and Hungary’s foreign policy manoeuvrability.
The ideological alignment between Orbán and the Republican leader defined the dynamics of their relationship during Trump’s first term. Both politicians shared similar views on national sovereignty, strict immigration controls, and criticism of globalism. Orbán was the only European leader to openly support Trump’s 2016 campaign, laying the foundation for later cooperation. Péter Szijjártó, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, referred to this period as the “golden age of relations,” highlighting a relationship based on mutual respect and practical interests. The economic and security partnerships established with the previous administration, along with a shared commitment to energy diversification, further strengthened cooperation.
Conversely, the Biden administration prioritised democratic values and human rights, which often caused friction in US-Hungarian relations. Criticism over the state of the rule of law and media freedom led to a more distanced bilateral relationship. However, from 20 January onwards, a renewed emphasis on national sovereignty and a more pragmatic approach could offer Hungary an opportunity to improve relations, particularly in sensitive areas such as China policy.
Cooperation with China is particularly important for Hungary, which actively participates in the “Belt and Road Initiative.” The first Trump administration approached China more from an economic than a geopolitical perspective, which created favourable conditions for Hungary. This approach could allow Hungary to continue benefiting from Chinese investments while mitigating international criticism. Trump’s second term may also bolster Hungary’s position in this area.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict similarly plays a crucial role in shaping bilateral relations. The previous Republican administration frequently emphasised the general importance of peace negotiations, aligning with Hungary’s pro-peace stance. This marked a significant contrast to the Biden administration’s staunchly pro-Ukraine policy, which focused on economic and military aid. If renewed peace talks emerge as a priority, Hungary could find itself in a more advantageous geopolitical position, possibly even assuming a mediatory role.
In energy policy, Trump’s emphasis on fossil fuels could also prove beneficial for Hungary. Support for expanding US LNG imports could reduce Hungary’s dependence on Russian energy while reinforcing energy diversification. This aligns with the Orbán government’s objectives of achieving energy independence and maintaining stable economic relations.
Trump’s second term offers Hungary numerous opportunities. Strengthening political support, expanding economic and energy cooperation, and emphasising a pro-peace stance could all be advantageous. However, challenges such as US protectionist economic policies and potential international conflicts may arise. The future of bilateral relations will depend on how much the new US administration supports Hungary’s regional goals and foreign policy ambitions.
The author is an associate professor at the Faculty of Law and Political Sciences at Károli Gáspár University of the Reformed Church in Hungary