Photo: iStock
Zoltán Kiszelly
20/09/2024 05:00
The debates of the millennium were still about reforming existing international organisations. Japan and Germany had asked for a seat on the UN Security Council alongside the five victorious powers of World War II, and were willing to give generous support to the development programmes of the world body. India, as the 'most populous democracy', and South Africa, as an example of peaceful regime change on the black continent, would have been as likely to sit at the table of 21st century decision-makers as Brazil, the advocate of Central and Latin America. Another idea would have been to seat delegates from the five continents' largest integration organisations in the UNSC, ensuring a balanced representation of humanity facing common (climate) challenges.
Twenty years ago, the status quo won the day, so the (regional and middle) powers dissatisfied with the status quo began their emancipation from the only remaining superpower, the US. This process has accelerated over the last two decades and has acquired a dynamic that is eerily similar to the division of the world before World War I. Just as the colonisable territories were then dwindling and the then great powers could only take new territories at the expense of each other, so today the control of conquerable markets and natural resources has reached a level at which peaceful means can no longer be used to expand.
The regional and middle powers are pursuing different strategies to increase their influence: Türkiye (Organisation of Turkic States), Iran (Shiite crescent) and Saudi Arabia (Abraham Accords) are building regional alliances. China is using the Belt and Road Initiative to market its export-oriented economy and the BRICS+ formation to bring together regional and middle powers from the five continents willing to cooperate with it.
The US, as an incumbent, can no longer apply the divide et impera principle and prefers bloc-formation with the German-dominated EU, the Anglo-Saxon countries and its Far Eastern allies. This is not isolationism, but rather a build-up of strength for the great contest with China that will define the rest of the 21st century.
Spontaneous globalisation has so far favoured South-East Asia, so the West now looks to 'managed' globalisation to improve its position. What will the post-global world order look like? We do not know yet! The global system change is happening before our eyes, with sanctions and war in the shadow of nuclear weapons. For Hungary, which lies between East and West, it is certainly not bloc-building but connectivity and peace that offer the best framework for the development of Hungarians in the 21st century.
The author is Director of the Centre for Policy Analysis at the Századvég Foundation