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Norbert Csizmadia
28/02/2025 06:00
Megatrends are keys, patterns, and laws—long-term global changes affecting nature, society, the economy, and culture. They have specific directions, with varying impacts across different geographical regions and industries. Understanding them provides insight into complex transformation processes and helps to identify interconnections and interactions. Megatrends form networks.
Among these, three "super megatrends" stand out as the most significant challenges of our time:
In his book Future Files, Richard Watson presents the most important trends between 2010 and 2050 using an engaging "metro map." The various lines represent different megatrends and their interconnections across 16 themes, including the economy, travel, health, work, transportation, geopolitics, energy, and raw materials. This map identifies 50 trends that will fundamentally shape the coming decades. Notably, the early 2000s analysis foresaw global risks such as the energy crisis, the spread of pandemics, and the breakdown of global supply chains. Additionally, technological revolutions predicted for the 2030s have already become part of our daily lives.
Peter Fisk, a megatrend researcher and global thought leader, identifies five key megatrends: the shift of the global economic centre of gravity towards the East, the exponential acceleration of technological development, climate change, societal transformations, and the continuation and acceleration of urbanisation trends.
The Global Risks report by the World Economic Forum annually summarises current and emerging global risks, highlighting economic and geopolitical tensions as the most significant. In this fragmented world, the report underscores the importance of localised strategies in managing global risks.
One of the most comprehensive and intriguing publications on the subject is Megatrends – 64 Fundamental Megatrends Shaping Our World, published by the Hungarian National Bank in January 2025. It identifies and examines 64 megatrends across eight thematic categories:
Regarding geopolitics, the publication highlights the significance of the Eurasian transition, the role of rare earth metals, technological sovereignty, vertical geopolitics, and sustainability as a geopolitical factor. Among technological megatrends, it examines financial and digital revolutions (artificial intelligence, virtual reality, smart cities, big tech, new competition platforms, and technological singularity) and the new industrial revolutions (nanotechnology, quantum technology, autonomous systems, 3D printing, data-driven manufacturing, smart logistics, and the vehicles of the future).
The future will belong to those who most accurately understand the megatrends shaping it and who base their operations on sustainability principles during this era of great transitions. As the publication states, economic convergence and development in the future can only be achieved through sustainability. We must return to environmentally, financially, economically, and socially sustainable growth. A sustainability shift is only possible if growth is primarily based on knowledge, talent, capital, and technology. Coordinated action at both local and international levels is required to mitigate risks and create a more positive future in this fragmented global environment.
For this reason, countries must develop long-term grand strategies and visions rooted in the understanding of megatrends, particularly by integrating the three super megatrends: geopolitics, technology, and sustainability. Examples of such strategic foresight include Dubai’s Global 50-Year Vision, Singapore’s forward-looking policies, and South Korea’s long-term green future strategy. We should pay close attention to small, innovative countries and emerging megatrends!
The author is a geographer and chairman of the board of trustees of the John von Neumann University Foundation