Photo: Kormány.hu/MTI/Veres Nándor
András Kosztur
20/09/2024 06:00
The concept of global order change really came to the attention of the daily press after this year's speech, but it is by no means a new term. So much so that the prime minister himself used it in his 2014 speech, also in Tusnádfürdő, at the Bálványos Summer Free University and Student Camp, in reference to the great turns of the 20th century and the processes of our time - but then the term illiberal state was the one that caught the attention of many.
Ten years ago, Viktor Orbán drew parallels between the two world wars and the end of the Cold War, but today he has placed the concept on a much broader historical horizon, interpreting it as the replacement of the Western-centred world order that emerged as a result of the great geographical discoveries. Márton Békés, the historian and director of the 21st Century Institute in Hungary (XXI. Század Intézet), who has popularised the term in Hungarian (world) political thought most in recent years, summarised its most obvious consequence for us: " instead of the unipolar, liberal world order dominated by the United States, a multipolar world order based on large spaces is emerging." In the future, and even already, alongside Washington and other Western capitals - or instead of them? - it will also be worth listening to the voices of countries such as China, which is becoming a world leader in many respects, and emerging powers such as India, Indonesia, Pakistan and the Middle East.
For Hungary, the changes of five hundred years ago were an unfortunate reversal: the shift of the centre of gravity of the world economy to the Atlantic, centuries of wars between the Ottomans and the European states, and the divisions of successive world wars and the Cold War turned one of the great powers of medieval Europe into a peripheral battlefield, a fortress struggling to maintain its independence. But today's transformation, with all the dangers that such a process entails, offers an opportunity for Hungary to once again pursue an independent, proactive policy.
However, as the prime minister pointed out, this requires a Hungarian grand strategy, which has been in the making since the 2022 elections: the Hungarians have entered the programme-writing system of President Donald Trump’s team, while "researchers at the Magyar Nemzeti Bank [the central bank of Hungary] have been taking part in strategy workshops in Asia – particularly in China", but "there are a number of such soft power institutions associated with the Hungarian government – think tanks, research institutes, universities – which have been operating at full throttle over the past two years. " And the foundations of the Hungarian grand strategy are connectivity, the defence of sovereignty, a stable and resilient Hungarian society and thinking in terms of the nation. These set the framework for the tasks facing Hungary in the coming decades, some of which will be left to younger generations to implement.
The author is a senior researcher at the 21st Century Institute