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Szabolcs Veres
11/10/2024 21:29
First steps
Tokayev took over as President of Kazakhstan in challenging circumstances, full of decades of unfulfilled expectations, tensions and accumulated promises to Kazakh society. In an attempt to alleviate Kazakh society's dissatisfaction with the country's political leadership, Kazakhstan called early presidential elections in April 2019, signalling a new era of political engagement in the Central Asian country after almost 30 years. In the early elections, Tokayev came first with 70.96% of the vote. Following his victory, the new president immediately began to promote dialogue between the government and society. One of his first decrees, for example, established the National Council of Public Trust, which became a key instrument for the policies (social consolidation, social consensus, etc.) and reforms favoured by the new Kazakh policy. Later, in the first wave of reforms in the now-Tokayev Kazakhstan, laws on assembly were liberalised, party registration thresholds were lowered, defamation was decriminalised, the death penalty was abolished and, crucially for the consolidation of social relations - and international relations – political opposition was for the first time legally recognised. Then, in the second and third waves of reforms (in 2020 and 2021), decisions were taken that are still valid today, such as increasing the influence of the state in regional governance. Although at first sight this may seem strange to a European eye - to give the state more influence in "local governments" – in the case of Kazakhstan, this move was necessary to reduce the chances of "small kingdoms". At the same time, these reforms included the election of akims (mayors) and the establishment of local self- government.
Low points
In addition to the inherited past, Tokayev's presidency was further tested from 2020 onwards, first by the COVID-19 pandemic and then by the bloody events of January 2022. At the same time, the tragic events of 2022 highlighted the underlying social tensions and the urgent need for systemic change and the growing public demand for a transparent government that is responsive to social needs and committed to the well-being of citizens. Also, that it is impossible to return to Kazakhstan's previous policies reminiscent of the Nazarbayev period, since such significant changes and processes have already begun in Kazakh society that any attempt to restore the "old regime" would inevitably lead to chaos and instability. However, for Tokayev, the expectations of Kazakh society were not clear obstacles, but rather necessary opportunities, as the direction of social change in Kazakhstan was in line with the political reforms and vision of Tokayev, which aimed to create a new model of governance based on decentralisation of power with checks and balances.
Following the restoration of relative social calm in the country in 2022, Tokayev promised political and economic reforms and "new, fairer and more transparent rules of the game" to reconcile Kazakh society by implementing a constitutional reform. This resulted in a referendum on constitutional change on 5 June 2022, which was supported by 77.18% of Kazakh citizens who voted. Under the constitutional amendment, the president can no longer be a member of any political party in Kazakhstan, which also meant the loss of political influence of the ruling Amanat Party (Nur Otan before the January events). In addition, under the amended constitution, close relatives can no longer hold any office in state-owned companies. This move was intended to curb the nepotism that was prevalent during Nazarbayev's presidency. In addition, the powers of parliament have been extended, a mixed proportional majority electoral system has been introduced and party registration procedures have been simplified. An independent Constitutional Court was established to oversee government decisions and protect human rights. Increased regional autonomy gave residents tangible tools to influence local government decisions. At the same time, Tokayev laid down the principles of the new Kazakh political culture at constitutional level.
Early elections and political stabilization
Early elections in March 2023 could take place after President Tokayev dissolved the lower house of the Kazakh parliament following his re-election in 2022. Thanks to this and an amendment to the Kazakh constitution, the elections were now held under a mixed electoral system, with 29 of the 98 deputies in the Maceys elected from single-mandate districts. According to the official results of the early elections, the ruling Amanat party won 53.9% of the vote, maintaining its majority in Maceilis. Auyl was the second party with the highest number of votes next to Amanat, with 10.9% of the Kazakh population supporting it.
Economic restructuring
After the end of the election cycle, Tokayev quickly launched economic reforms that have already delivered results over the past five years. Non-resource exports have increased more than one and a half times, and the country has attracted nearly USD 117 billion in foreign direct investment. The new Tokay economic policy model change "announced" in September 2023, however, was already based on three areas: the promotion of private initiative/enterprise by moving away from state capitalism and excessive state intervention, the development of economic competitiveness and the fair distribution of national income. The rationale behind these three directions was to abandon administrative price controls to increase investment attractiveness, reduce the influence of monopoly groups and make tax policy more predictable, and to help financially support competitive Kazakh small and medium-sized enterprises. The Kazakh government has also adopted measures to promote economic liberalisation, business freedom and competitive development, and to reduce state involvement in economic processes. For Kazakhstan, a key market opening strategy is the gradual privatisation of state assets, with the aim of gradually withdrawing state-owned entities (except strategic and social sectors and financial infrastructure) from the free market by the end of 2028. Further steps are planned to promote a sound market environment with a strong focus on supporting medium-sized enterprises.
Where to go next?
Tokayev's model hopes for a transformation into a just Kazakhstan (as it is officially called). To begin with, it addresses shortcomings such as concentrated and unremovable supreme power, excessive state influence in politics and the economy, the effects of uncontrolled oil revenues that have corrupted the ruling elite, and the market monopolization of oligarchic groups, systemic reforms to strengthen the system of governance, socio-political and economic institutions. In five years, Kazakhstan has evolved from a super-presidential republic to a presidential republic, with a strong parliament, accountable government, autonomous regions, competitive businesses, an engaged civil society and public participation in decision-making. And the transformation has been aimed at creating a Kazakhstan characterised by open government, equitable resource allocation, free market competition and continuous feedback between society and the state. At the same time, Kazakhstan today faces a historic crossroads. The decisions taken by the Kazakh government, influenced by internal and external, deliberate and spontaneous forces, will largely determine the future of the country.
The author is a researcher at the Eurasia Center
