Photo: iStock
Szabolcs Veres
27/03/2024 09:54
In order to meet domestic demand, the old countries – Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan – decided to stop exporting gas to China. In addition, the secondary and tertiary effects of sanctions against Russia and political pressure on Central Asian countries have prompted governments in the region to increasingly support green energy projects in the country in order to reduce their dependence on conventional energy sources.
Prospects for the growth of renewable energy sources in Central Asia
The development of renewable energy sources in the countries of Central Asia is uneven. While some countries - Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan - have already discovered and are exploring the possibilities of alternative energy sources, others - Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan - have only begun their journey towards sustainability in recent years.
Dynamic development in Kazakhstan
In Kazakhstan, the renewable energy sector has only developed strongly in the last ten years and has taken an increasingly large share of the country's energy market and energy mix.
Thanks to the country's geographical location, Kazakhstan has considerable potential in the areas of hydropower, wind energy and solar energy. According to the Kazakh Ministry of Energy, there are currently 133 plants in the Central Asian country that can generate renewable energy. These include 48 wind power plants with a total capacity of 1107 MW, 43 solar power plants with a capacity of 1148 MW, 39 hydropower plants with a total capacity of 270 MW and three biogas power plants with a capacity of 1.77 MW. According to data published in the first half of 2023, these renewable energy sources generated 3.35 billion kWh of electricity for the country.
In Kazakhstan, the annual electricity generation potential from hydropower plants is estimated at 65 billion kWh. The most promising prospects for hydropower development are in the southern regions of the country, where almost 65-66% of hydropower resources are concentrated along mountain rivers. For Astana, the development of such hydropower plants offers the advantages of relatively low energy production costs and environmental sustainability.
In addition, the northern, steppe-covered part of Kazakhstan has a huge wind energy potential, estimated at more than 1820 billion kWh. The Kazakh Ministry of Energy is considering the construction of wind farms with a total capacity of more than 1 million kWh in 46 regions of the country by 2030.
According to the Central Asia Data-Gathering and Analysis Team (CADGAT), the energy potential that can be utilised with solar cells (photovoltaics) amounts to 6,684 TWh per year.
Kazakhstan's other alternative energy sources include various biogas technologies, the processing of solid waste and the possibility of utilising wave energy, tidal energy and the tidal currents of the Caspian Sea.
Untapped Uzbekistan
According to estimates by the International Energy Agency and the UN Economic Commission for Europe, Uzbekistan has a huge potential to generate 2,091 billion kWh of electricity from solar energy, which is estimated to be ten times the country's annual consumption. This is mainly due to the fact that there are almost 320 sunny days a year in the Central Asian country. Uzbekistan is the leader in solar energy potential with a capacity of 2058 billion kWh.
Over the past five to six years, Uzbekistan has strongly emphasised its commitment and determination in the field of green energy development. The government in Tashkent has signed 21 agreements with international companies for the construction of solar and wind power plants. In Uzbekistan, 19 solar energy projects with a total capacity of 3,977 MW and seven wind farms with a total capacity of 3,100 MW are currently under construction. All of these projects, with a total cost of more than 9 billion dollars, are being realised by foreign companies through direct investment. A further seven solar and wind power plants with a total capacity of 2,797 MW are scheduled to be commissioned between 2023 and 2024.
In addition, two 500 MW wind power plants will be commissioned in the Bukhara region in 2025. In 2026, four wind farms with a total capacity of 1,600 MW will be commissioned in Uzbekistan. By 2026, Uzbekistan plans to commission solar and wind power plants with a capacity of more than 8,000 MW and hydropower plants with 868 MW.
Tajikistan is in a favourable position
Tajikistan has considerable potential in the field of hydropower. In this respect, the country ranks first in Central Asia. The country's hydropower reserves are estimated at 527 billion kWh per year. In addition, Tajikistan's hydropower plants cover 98% of the country's electricity needs, making Tajikistan the sixth largest producer of green energy in the world.
Following its independence, Tajikistan has built 287 large and small hydropower plants over the last 30 years and modernised around 75% of the infrastructure of the former Soviet power grid. However, the development of solar and wind energy is still in its infancy in Tajikistan. In addition to geothermal energy and bioenergy, Tajikistan also wants to make progress in these areas.
Kyrgyzstan - potential sources of hydropower
According to experts, Kyrgyzstan has unique natural and geographical conditions for the utilisation of green technologies. The annual potential for renewable energy in Kyrgyzstan is estimated at 5,000 million kWh from water sources, more than 490 million kWh from solar energy and 45 million kWh from wind energy.
Although the Kyrgyz Republic has the second largest hydropower potential in Central Asia after Tajikistan, only 10% of the hydropower capacity in Bishkek is currently being utilised. The country is researching alternative energy sources in order to diversify its energy supply. In the Issyk-Kul region, a 100 MW wind farm is already under construction, as is the development of a 300 MW solar plant.
In addition, the Kyrgyz Republic signed an agreement with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in 2022 for the joint construction of the Kambar-Ata-1 hydropower plant on the Naryn River, which will be the largest power plant of its kind in the Central Asian country.
Turkmenistan's plans for solar production
Turkmenistan plays a key role in Central Asia's gas and electricity exports, which are mainly generated from natural gas. In 2022, Turkmenistan adopted the Presidential Programme for Social and Economic Development for the period 2022-2028, which also envisages renewable energy sources, including the domestic production of solar cells.
The Turkish company Çalik Enerji Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. has ambitious plans to build a 10 MW hybrid solar and wind energy plant in Turkmenistan by 2024, financed by a 25 million dollar investment from the Abu Dhabi Development Fund. In addition, Turkmenistan has signed an agreement with the company Masdar (United Arab Emirates) to build a 100 MW photovoltaic plant in 2022, with which it is also negotiating investments in Turkmenistan's hydrogen sector.
In view of the continuing energy shortage in Central Asia and the structural economic change, the development of renewable energies enables the Central Asian countries to meet their growing energy needs. In Central Asia, the "green" transition is not an easy task, but it also represents an opportunity to modernise economies based on the Soviet economic structure. Central Asian countries seem to be paving the way to a more sustainable future by importing the trinity of innovative financing mechanisms, such as state and private sector subsidies and international knowledge.
Due to the lack of knowledge in the renewable energy sector, all five Central Asian countries want to rely on foreign investors who can help them develop renewable energy capacities in the region. At the same time, however, the question arises as to what extent the Central Asian countries are prepared to follow this green path of transformation, as the Azerbaijani government must also ensure that as many of these projects as possible can be realised.
The author is a researcher at the Eurasia Center
