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Eurasia
19/07/2025 20:54
According to the agency, Kazakhstan’s sovereign net foreign assets are expected to remain stable at around $93 billion (31% of GDP) this year, supported by the National Fund and official foreign exchange reserves. The country also maintains a relatively low debt burden, forecast at around 25% of GDP, well below the ‘BBB’ median, Astana Times reports.
Fitch forecasts real GDP growth of 5.6% this year, driven by higher oil production, particularly as expansion at the Tengiz oil field has outpaced expectations, with output forecast to exceed 1.9 million barrels per day.
Inflation is expected to average 12%, reflecting rapid credit growth, utility tariff reforms, and currency depreciation.
Fitch noted that greater risk of macroeconomic instability, a prolonged period of looser fiscal policy, or disruption of exports could lead to a downgrade, while continued strengthening of the economic policy framework and institutional capacity could support a positive rating action.
