Photo: AFP/Alessandro Della Valle
Zoltán Koskovics
20/09/2024 06:00
The transformation of the world order before our eyes will bring with it the relative decline of the US. The United States can no longer assert its interests worldwide, as the resurgence of China, India and perhaps Russia will place clear limits on its influence. In addition to the global superpowers, there is an increased role for regional power centres such as Iran, Indonesia, Türkiye, South Africa and other emerging powers. But what lies ahead for the European Union at the end of the geopolitical interregnum?
Unfortunately, of the two most likely scenarios, one is pessimistic and the other is downright catastrophic. The problem boils down to a single central question: will there be a single, coherent political will to steer EU trade and foreign and security policy? This requires European decision-makers to recognise and agree on the economic and security interests of the continent, and to use this recognition as the basis for a policy of force or diplomatic manoeuvres. It is telling that the answer to this question is not to be found in Europe, but in the USA. The fate of Europe depends to a large extent on the outcome of the presidential elections in November.
If Donald Trump wins, the alliance of liberals and technocrats that has controlled America could come to an end. This could be a boon for Europe for two reasons. On the one hand, fear of Trump could sober up European elites, so that they will devote more money and energy to the military and to defending the continent's vital economic interests, including energy security. On the other hand, the demise of progressive ideology in the US could mean the end of European woke-ism in the medium term, as our ultra-liberals are fully subordinated to the control of their American co-religionists. Geopolitical realism may thus return, and our real interests may once again become more important than the 'values' we hold sacrosanct. Since the new American conservatism, under the Trump brand, expects Europe to stand on its own feet and to transform itself from a lazy henchman into a useful ally, this would mean a slow restoration of European influence - in the shadow of the US, subordinate to it. Not an ideal prospect, but the alternative is more worrying.
If Donald Trump loses - or is prevented from taking office by the Democratic regime - there is no breakout for Europe. In that case, a woke, progressive elite could hold our continent in its grip for cycles. At the behest of the US Democrats, we would be embroiled in a suicidal economic conflict with China (the European punitive tariff on their electric vehicles is a dangerous harbinger), the energy crisis would become permanent and European industry would slowly decline. The US will inevitably escape the grip of extreme liberal delusion over time, under the compelling pressure of global transformation, but will be in a weaker position vis-à-vis its global competitors. And a weak, hesitant, half-blind Europe could easily become the arena for great power rivalries. There was a precedent for this when, in the 19th century, the great powers of Europe squabbled on the hills of a crippled China. Let us trust that history has no sense of irony.
The author is a geopolitical analyst at the Centre for Fundamental Rights