Connectivity vs. decoupling and economic warfare
Looking back at the history of humankind, we can see that some form of connectivity has always been the goal of peoples, city-states, civilizations, nations, and empires alike.
Connectivity vs. decoupling and economic warfare
Geurasia

Connectivity vs. decoupling and economic warfare

Photo: iStock
25/11/2025 21:59

Levente Horváth
Director of the Eurasia Center,
Editor-in-Chief of Eurasia

Looking back at the history of humankind, we can see that some form of connectivity has always been the goal of peoples, city-states, civilizations, nations, and empires alike. It is no coincidence that ancient and later civilizations emerged along rivers: besides providing food and water for agriculture, rivers also enabled transportation and, consequently, trade.

As civilizations advanced, empires sought to expand their territories or establish trade routes in order to interlink ever larger regions—such as the ancient Silk Road. Throughout millennia, these forms of interconnection have appeared under different names—alliances, colonization, unions, and so forth—yet they all ultimately aimed at some form of connectivity. By the 20th and 21st centuries, technological progress had brought humanity to a new stage of connectivity: globalization.

History teaches us that those who engaged in connectivity prospered, while those who turned inward were left behind. Isolation has typically been rooted in ideology—and if it served no other purpose, it at least provided lessons to learn from.

After the ideological struggles of the Cold War, the world enjoyed roughly two peaceful decades of growing interconnection. In the 21st century, however, ideological confrontation has resurfaced, bringing with it renewed tendencies toward isolation, now framed in the slogans of decoupling and de-risking. Yet globalization and interdependence have by now become so deeply intertwined that these slogans remain little more than political rhetoric. While Western political leaders preach disengagement, the business world continues to deepen its economic ties.

In March 2025, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with the heads of more than 40 multinational corporations—including Blackstone, Standard Chartered Bank, Bridgewater Associates, Qualcomm, AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Mercedes, BMW, Toyota, Siemens, and Samsung, to name just a few. A similar meeting took place in 2024, and another one is likely next year. In mid-October, the chairman of Blackstone held talks in Beijing with Foreign Minister and State Councillor Wang Yi, while Apple’s CEO met with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao. Meanwhile, German companies such as Volkswagen, Continental, and Bosch are expanding their investments in China. According to a report by the German Chamber of Commerce, 51 percent of German firms plan to increase their presence in China within the next one to two years. AstraZeneca announced an investment of USD 2.5 billion, Scania (a Volkswagen subsidiary) EUR 2 billion, Volkswagen EUR 2.5 billion, and BMW EUR 2.8 billion.

It is clear that while the political elite makes ideologically driven decisions, the business world is moving in the opposite direction—tightening its ties with China even further. In short, Western politics has become a kind of theatre: beneath the rhetoric, economic interdependence continues to strengthen, because connectivity is what truly drives the world forward.

Another striking development in this context is that the United States—once the foremost champion of globalization—has declared a trade war on China, and in effect, a tariff war on much of the world. While most countries bowed to the pressure of U.S. tariffs, only one stood its ground and struck back: China. Beijing announced restrictions on the export of rare earth elements, triggering panic and outrage in the West over how their industries would cope and how China could dare such a move. In other words, the U.S. launched an economic war—then was shocked when economic countermeasures were used against it.

Economic cooperation, guided by the principle of connectivity, would move the world forward.

The lesson of history is clear: connectivity is the right path.

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