Photo: iStock
Szabolcs Veres
11/03/2025 09:26
In fact, the border conflict dates back decades and clashes between border communities are a regular occurrence. However, the flare-ups of conflict are usually short-lived, taking place between local communities.
The long-running border dispute between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, two neighbouring Central Asian countries that gained independence after the break-up of the Soviet Union, which has often involved armed clashes and loss of life, appears to be coming to an end after the signing in Bishkek of a document by the head of the Kyrgyz State Committee for National Security, Kamchybek Tashiev, and his Tajik counterpart, Saimumin Yatimov, on the settlement of the border dispute between the two countries. The newly signed agreement finalises the delimitation and demarcation of the 972 kilometres of border between the two nations, ending long-standing tensions. The document also includes a treaty on state borders, management of energy and water resources, and a blueprint for building new roads at key border crossings. In substance, all that remains is for the documents to be formalised and ratified before final approval by Kyrgyz President Sadir Zhaparov and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon.
Border negotiations between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan started back in 2002 but have barely progressed for almost two decades, leading to unresolved and frequent conflicts between the two neighbouring countries over access to and control of arable land, water and transport infrastructure. Partly due to unresolved border issues, and partly due to internal political tensions, tensions between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have escalated into violent clashes on several occasions over the past two decades, for example between April and May 2021, and again in September 2022, resulting in dozens of casualties on both sides.
At the same time, resource access and use clashes between Kyrgyz and Tajik border communities took place in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2015. During these years, local media reported more than 70 incidents in the border areas. One such incident was the 2004 conflict known as the 'Apricot War', when Tajik farmers planted a number of apricot trees in the disputed area, where Kyrgyz residents then disputed and removed all such trees.
The active negotiation phase for the demarcation of the Kyrgyz-Tajik border started back in October 2023, the final result of which is the agreement that has now been signed. The final phase of the agreement just signed has proved to be incredibly difficult, as the last 50 kilometres of the Kyrgyz-Tajik border took almost a full year to be drawn, with the working group set up to draw the border lines negotiating almost non-stop, alternating between Batken in Kyrgyzstan and Isfara in Tajikistan. The last meeting of the commissions was held in Batken on 4 December 2024, at which Saimumin Yatimov, the Tajik chairman of the commission, announced that the demarcation of the borders was almost complete and that the legal formalisation of the documents prior to the signing of the interstate treaty had begun.
Relations between the two neighbouring Central Asian countries are complicated by the Soviet legacy. Partly as a result of the break-up of the Soviet Union, the border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which is some 972 kilometres long, was not precisely demarcated, as was the case with other countries in the region. In addition, Russia conquered Central Asia in the 19th century, subjugating the previously independent Khanates of Kokand, Khiva and Bukhara Emirate. After the October Revolution and the formation of the Soviet Union, it was decided to divide the borders of Central Asia into ethnic republics in a process known as national territorial demarcation.
And to complicate matters, the border between the two countries also passes through enclaves of disputed ethnicity (Vorukh and Kayragach), ignoring ethnographic and economic realities. The deterioration of the situation after the collapse of the Soviet Union led to a series of clashes between local Kyrgyz and Tajiks, culminating in an armed conflict in 2022 that killed dozens of people and resulted in mass displacements. In addition, the infrastructure of the border areas of the Sughd and Batken provinces suffered significant material damage, and one of the largest regional drug trafficking routes was located here.
Despite the positive developments in the Kyrgyz-Tajik border dispute, it is important to be cautious. The continued postponement of border demarcation measures between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan has led to a rather realistic attitude among border residents towards the settlement of the dispute.
In addition, the border has been drawn chaotically, often in steps, and the border line not only passes through households but also houses cut in two, which has created tensions among the local population and the slightest mistake in the documents now being prepared (which village, field or house belongs where) could give rise to new conflicts.
In addition, the lack of information of the local population on the details of the agreement may be a further cause for concern and could be a source of tension later on. At the same time, the locals are waiting for one thing, the opening of the border between the two states, because they want to move freely and have access to water, given that the transport and irrigation systems are common to the region.
However, there are also domestic political elements in the issue of border demarcation. Indeed, the political future of President Sadir Zhaparov depends to a large extent on the successful conclusion of negotiations on the demarcation and demarcation of the Kyrgyz-Tajik border, especially in view of the outcome of the upcoming (October 2027) Kyrgyz presidential elections, as the incumbent Kyrgyz president has previously made a strong pledge to end decades of border disputes with Tajikistan.
Nevertheless, the issue of resolving the Kyrgyz-Tajik border dispute is further assessed at the regional level, as the CSTO recently adopted its 2025-2030 target programme for strengthening the Tajik-Afghan border, in which 'calm' on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border is key, as everything in the region is interconnected and any border conflict poses a serious risk to the successful implementation of the programme.
The author is a researcher at the Eurasia Center