Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks at the finish line
After decades of warfare, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan may finally be resolved. Armenian leaders have expressed optimism that they are ready to make peace as soon as possible.
Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks at the finish line
Geurasia

Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks at the finish line

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pasinyan and Azeri President Ilham Aliyev in Moscow.  Photo: AFP/ SERGEI ILNITSKY
Eurasia 14/10/2024 16:00

After decades of warfare, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan may finally be resolved. Armenian leaders have expressed optimism that they are ready to make peace as soon as possible.

Armenia and Azerbaijan could make peace before the UN climate change conference (COP29) in Baku in November this year, the Financial Times quoted Vahagn Khachaturyan. The Armenian president said on the sidelines of a conference in Hamburg that there are still some issues to be resolved, but negotiations are already at the finishing line. He stressed that it was time to live in peace with all their neighbors after decades of living in a "war-like" state.

Nikol Pasinyan recently expressed similar sentiments. Speaking at the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Moscow in early October, the Armenian Prime Minister said that Armenia is ready to sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan, which had already been negotiated between the parties, as early as October. In a statement also quoted by MTI, he mentioned the conditions:

1. mutual recognition of each other's territorial integrity,

2. the renunciation of territorial claims on each other,

3. and a commitment not to make such claims in the future.

"These include respect for the prohibition of the use or threat of use of force, non-interference in each other's affairs, the establishment of diplomatic relations, and the establishment of bilateral mechanisms for the fulfillment of obligations undertaken by the parties through peaceful agreement," they listed.

The Armenian PM also revealed that the issues have already been drafted in consultation with the parties in the draft peace agreement between the two countries.

Pashinyan also sat at the round table alongside Azeri President Ilham Aliyev at the CIS meeting. After the meeting, however, Aliyev only shrugged his shoulders in response to a journalist's question on the possibility of signing a peace agreement by the end of the year.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought several wars. Most recently, Baku reclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh, which belongs to Azerbaijan under international law, in 2020 and then in 2023 in offensives that lasted just a few weeks.

The Armenian president has also come clean on relations with the European Union. He made it clear that Armenia is unlikely to apply for membership shortly and does not intend to sever its ties with Russia.

Some contentious issues remain
Even though the draft peace agreement is almost ready, there are still some contentious issues. "According to Baku, references to the country's declaration of independence should be removed from the Armenian constitution, as the latter document contains a passage on the future unification of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, which Azerbaijan interprets as a claim to its territories. However, Armenians consider this a legal formality and would agree now on the already agreed parts of the peace, leaving the constitution-making for later," Andras Kostur wrote in his analysis.

The researcher of the 21st Century Institute mentioned the so-called Zangezur Corridor as another problematic point. He recalled that it bisects the southern part of Armenia, through which Azerbaijan can have direct access to its exclave, Nakhichevan, as well as to Türkiye. However, the area is also a priority for Armenia, as it crosses the two routes that connect the country to the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The expert also pointed out that Yerevan is trying to strike a balance between West and East. "In recent years, Armenia has increasingly sought alliances with Western states, led by countries with a significant Armenian diaspora such as France and the United States. However, Yerevan does not want to destroy its relations with Russia either, since even if a complete turn to the West were the intention of Armenian leaders, this would not be possible due to the country's geographical and economic position," he wrote. "For Armenia's leaders, the process of world disorder is thus a challenge that could stake the country's territorial integrity or even its very survival," he warned.

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