Analyst: Russia's political leverage exceeds its economic weight in Africa
The recently concluded second Russia-Africa summit was commented on by analysts in the international media, countering the one-sided narrative of the Western press.
Analyst: Russia's political leverage exceeds its economic weight in Africa
Geurasia

Analyst: Russia's political leverage exceeds its economic weight in Africa

Photo: AFP/pool/Alexey Danichev
Mariann Őry 30/07/2023 12:05

The recently concluded second Russia-Africa summit was commented on by analysts in the international media, countering the one-sided narrative of the Western press.

Russia is genuinely interested in deepening multifaceted trade, investment and humanitarian ties with Africa, which would meet the needs of all countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday, at the plenary session of the Russia-Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum within the framework of the second Russia-Africa Summit in Saint Petersburg, according to Xinhua.

The Russian leader further stressed the importance of uninterrupted food supplies to African countries. "Russia exported 11.5 million tons of grain to Africa in 2022, and almost 10 million tons in the first six months of this year alone," Putin said, adding that these deliveries were possible despite the sanctions imposed against Moscow. 

Putin said Russia will continue supplying grain to African nations. "In the next three to four months, we will be ready to provide, free of charge, a supply of 25,000-50,000 tonnes of grain each to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, the Central African Republic and Eritrea," Putin said, adding that delivery would also be free.

Vladimir Putin on Friday said Russia has written off debts of African states worth 23 billion USD, Anadolu Agency reported.  Putin said 90 per cent of debts of African countries were settled, with no more "direct" debts but some financial obligations. Putin noted that Russia's attention to Africa is steadily growing, which is evident in plans to increase diplomatic presence on the continent. "This is a real practical step to significantly intensify work with African countries in the political, business, humanitarian, cultural and tourism spheres," he stressed.

South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin (Photo: AFP/TASS Host Photo Agency/Sergei Bobylyov)
According to Russian political scientist and HSE professor Dmitry Evstafiev,  the colossal collective external debt of African countries ultimately does not impact the continent’s development, since most of these nations simply do not pay their debts. Speaking to Sputnik International, he noted that it seems unlikely that African countries were ever going to repay the debt that Russia ultimately decided to write off. “But we should shift towards financial-investment relations with African states, which would fit into the ‘investments and loans in exchange for permission to conduct economic activity’ formula,” Evstafiev suggested.

"The Western press is trying to present the event as a diplomatic failure, as the number of participating heads of state and government has decreased compared to 2019 (from 45 to 27), as well as the number of delegates (from 54 to 49), but these figures show that the general turning away of the African continent from Russia due to the war and the Western sanctions efforts is not the case," András Kosztur, Senior Analyst of the Budapest-based 21st Century Institute pointed out on Telegram.

However, it would be a mistake to overestimate the importance of Russian-African relations: according to an article by Vladimir Putin published a few days ago, Russia's trade turnover with Africa last year was 18 billion USD, Kosztur noted, adding that, by comparison, in 2022, Russian-EU trade exceeded 250 billion USD and Russian-China trade 190 billion USD. But Russia cannot be considered dominant in Africa's economy either: the black continent's trade with China was 282 billion USD last year, the otherwise steadily declining African-American trade was over 70 billion USD, but even India, Japan, France or Turkey have more economic ties with Africa than Russia, not to mention the EU's combined figures, he added.

The analyst recalled that Russia plays a prominent role in Africa in three areas: grain trade, defence and energy. In these areas, neither the war nor the sanctions have brought a turnaround, he pointed out. Moscow has been able to maintain its network of alliances in Africa, with four of the continent's five largest economies (Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia and South Africa) enjoying very good relations and regular meetings with their leaders, he added.

András Kosztur recalled that Russia's political and diplomatic weight thus exceeds its economic importance in Africa, thanks in no small part to its Soviet legacy. In many parts of Africa, the Soviet Union's role in the fight against colonialism is highly valued, and many of the African elites have studied at Soviet or Russian universities.

According to the analyst, talking about Russia's diplomatic failure in Africa is hardly relevant, even if China and presumably the United States have more influence (economic and political) on the continent than Russia. At the same time, as the summit shows, extending existing relations to new countries could be hampered by the tense situation between the West and Russia, he added.
#Africa #Russia

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