US President Joe Biden and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah, July 2022 (Photo: AFP/Mandel Ngan)
Dániel Kovács
21/02/2023 05:00
The oil monarchies have traditionally fallen into the sphere of interest of the United States, but since the outbreak of the war they have surprised their biggest ally on numerous occasions.
It was to be expected that pro-Russian Syria had already confirmed Russian recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk before the war broke out, and President Bashar al-Assad had assured Vladimir Putin of his support. It was, however, somewhat unexpected that the United Arab Emirates, the only Arab country with voting rights in the UN Security Council, abstained from voting on the Russian troop withdrawal at an extraordinary meeting of the Security Council. Russia has not been condemned by the Arab League, nor by Qatar, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates among the region’s countries.
In addition, top US diplomats lobbied in vain in Saudi Arabia for the Middle East kingdom to increase its production as oil prices rose to a ten-year high of USD 120 per barrel. In the end, President Joe Biden's personal visit only resulted in an increase in production from 12 to 13 million barrels per day,
even though experts believe that the oil monarchy could solve the oil supply problem the Western world is facing by itself by boosting its reserve capacity. Instead, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, the Crown Prince's half-brother, said that he continues to regard Russia as one of their most important allies within Opec+. And although America has sought to exclude Russia from the organisation, Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said in August that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) wants Russia to remain part of the oil production agreement after 2022, despite the war in the Ukraine and the subsequent Western sanctions.
In a period of soaring oil prices, there has of course been a surge in revenues for SaudiAramco, the country's oil and gas company, which saw its net profit jump by 90 per cent to SAR 181.64 billion, or USD 48.39 billion, in the second quarter of this year alone.
But it's not just Saudi Arabia that's seeing a massive influx of money, it's all the Persian Gulf exporting states, with the region expected to receive an extra USD 1,300 billion in oil revenues over the next four years. At the same time, the countries here have also begun to show greater independence in terms of foreign policy, and are less and less accepting of US guardianship. More autonomous policy-making is also reinforced by the OPEC Secretary General's words, who said “we could cut production if necessary, we could add production if necessary”.
Energy independence was, moreover, well preceded by independent action in the field of arms purchases. Between 2017 and 2021, 20 per cent of Russia's total arms exports were destined for the Middle East, which is incidentally also home to Saudi Arabia, the world's second largest arms importer. China has just delivered laser-guided anti-missile systems to them, and there are also plans to sell 12 L-12 light combat/training aircraft, despite US objections to the sale. Meanwhile, in the United Arab Emirates, construction has already begun on a Chinese military facility, which has been halted under US pressure, but this in itself is a sign that the Russian-Ukrainian war has fundamentally shaken US hegemony in the Middle East.
This article was originally published in our Hungarian-language magazine Eurázsia in 2022.